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Mental Models & Decision Frameworks Reusable thinking tools from many disciplines: first principles, inversion, expected value, incentives, compounding, and the trade-offs that make them work.
42 cards · space to flip · 1–4 to grade · d to go deeper
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Reading list The works this deck draws on, in the order worth reading them. Cards point to a specific chapter or paper where one fits.
01 Book The Great Mental Models, Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts · Shane Parrish and Rhiannon Beaubien One short chapter per model, covering most of this deck's foundations (the map, circle of competence, first principles, inversion, second-order thinking, probabilistic thinking, the razors). The best place to start. 02 Book Poor Charlie's Almanack · Charlie Munger, edited by Peter Kaufman The source of the latticework idea. The 1994 talk A Lesson on Elementary, Worldly Wisdom and the talk on the psychology of human misjudgment are the two to read first. 03 Book Thinking in Systems: A Primer · Donella Meadows Stocks, flows, feedback loops, and leverage points, explained with everyday examples. The best single book for the systems cards. 04 Book Thinking, Fast and Slow · Daniel Kahneman The research behind base rates, regression to the mean, the planning fallacy, and the outside view. Part 3 matters most for this deck. 05 Book Antifragile · Nassim Nicholas Taleb Via negativa, optionality, convexity, and the barbell, argued at length and with a temper. Skim the digressions; the core chapters repay the effort. 06 Book Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger · Peter Bevelin A dense catalogue of misjudgments and the models that correct them, organized for reference rather than for reading straight through. 07 Book Super Thinking · Gabriel Weinberg and Lauren McCann A wide, practical survey of several hundred models with worked examples; good for finding the name of a pattern you have already noticed. 