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Rabin Poudyal
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Economics and incentives

Opportunity cost

The cost of any choice is the net value of the best alternative you gave up, whether or not money changed hands.

Friedrich von Wieser, who made the forgone alternative the basis of a theory of cost from an 1876 seminar paper to Natural Value (1889); David I. Green's 1894 essay helped spread it in English.

Opportunity cost says that what a thing costs you is what you could have had instead. A government that spends a billion on a bridge has given up the hospital the billion would have built. A company that keeps a team on a legacy product has given up the product that team would have shipped. The price on the invoice is only part of the cost and sometimes no part of it: a free ticket still costs you the evening. David Henderson's definition in the Concise Encyclopedia of Economics is the value of the next-highest-valued alternative use of the resource, and the arithmetic is the benefit you forgo minus the expense you avoid.

It holds because resources are scarce and every use of one excludes the others. Henderson's example is a student paying $4,000 a year in tuition while the state adds an $8,000 subsidy. That looks like the student pays a third of the cost. Add the $20,000 the student would have earned by working and the real cost of the year is $32,000, of which the student bears three quarters. That is also why tuition rises do not empty universities: a 10 percent rise on $4,000 is under 2 percent of what the year really costs. In practice the rule is to price every choice against the alternative that would actually have happened, never against doing nothing.

The concept is easy to state and surprisingly hard to apply, as the survey below shows. The alternative must be real and must be the best one: adding up every alternative you did not take double counts, and the next best use of a resource is a judgement people can disagree about. It is also a rhetorical weapon: "every dollar spent on X is a dollar not spent on Y" assumes the dollar would otherwise have gone to Y, which is usually false. And it can eat itself, since calculating the opportunity cost of every small choice is itself a cost. For the version that applies to hours and attention, see the opportunity cost of time.

Example

At the 2005 Allied Social Sciences Association meetings in Philadelphia, Paul Ferraro and Laura Taylor put a first-year textbook question to 199 professional economists. You hold a free ticket to an Eric Clapton concert with no resale value; Bob Dylan plays the same night, his tickets cost $40, and you would pay up to $50 to see him. What is the opportunity cost of seeing Clapton? The answer is $10, the $50 of benefit forgone less the $40 you avoid paying. Only 43 respondents, 21.6 percent, chose it; each wrong answer ($0, $40 and $50) was more popular, so the economists did no better than chance.

Where it applies

Compare a cloud bill, a hire or a rewrite with the best thing that money or headcount would otherwise do, not with zero. The cost of running the largest model on every request is not the invoice: it is the latency the smaller model would have had, the extra traffic you could have served, or the fine-tuning the same budget would have bought.

Think about it

For the biggest expense you approved this month, what was the best alternative use of that money, and did you compare against it or against nothing?

Applied it to something real? Log it.

Test yourselfYou hold a free ticket to concert A. Concert B costs $40 and is worth $50 to you. What is the opportunity cost of going to A?

$10: the $50 of value you forgo from B minus the $40 you no longer have to pay. Only 21.6 percent of the economists Ferraro and Taylor surveyed in 2005 got this right.

Related models

Sources and further reading