Prediction log
In Philip Tetlock’s forecasting tournaments, the people who improved were the ones who put a number on a claim and found out later whether they were right. This is that practice, in public. Every forecast keeps the probability and date it was made with; changes of mind are added underneath, never written over.
0 on the record · scored with the Brier score · lower is better
Nothing public on the record yet. The log below is yours to use in the meantime, and the scoring is the same.
Your own predictions
Kept in this browser only, scored the same way. Write the question so a stranger could settle it, give it a probability, and come back when the date arrives. Export the file to carry it to another device.
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How the scoring works
A Brier score is the squared gap between the probability given and what happened, 1 for yes and 0 for no. Saying 70% and being right costs 0.09; saying 70% and being wrong costs 0.49; a coin flip costs 0.25 either way. The score is averaged over resolved predictions, and a prediction updated before it resolved is scored on its last number, with the original still on the card. The calibration chart is the one the calibration trainer draws, fed with real forecasts instead of trivia.